As chaos spreads across Jakarta and other parts of Indonesia, many observers are searching for meaning beneath the smoke and sirens. Beyond the tragedy of protesters clashing with Brimob, a deeper unease is emerging: is this unrest only about street anger, or does it tie into the unresolved power struggles at the very top of government?
Weeks before the 2024 presidential election, military and defense analyst Connie Rahakundini made headlines with an explosive statement. She suggested that Gibran Rakabuming Raka — then the vice-presidential candidate and son of Jokowi — might one day turn against his running mate, Prabowo Subianto. Her phrasing was shocking, even suggesting the possibility of betrayal as extreme as assassination. Critics at the time dismissed her warning as irresponsible hyperbole.
But in politics, words often outlive their moment. With today’s turmoil, Connie’s controversial prediction is being remembered and reframed. Protesters are on the streets. Brimob’s deadly misstep has inflamed public anger. And questions about loyalty, ambition, and who truly holds power in Indonesia are resurfacing with force.
The anxiety is not about a literal plot hatched overnight. Rather, it is about the perception of weakness. Prabowo, barely settled into the presidency, is now facing two fronts: unrest on the streets and unease in the palace. Many Indonesians see Jokowi’s lingering influence — through his son, through allies in government, and even through the courts — as a shadow over Prabowo’s authority. If Prabowo cannot assert bold, independent leadership, he risks being portrayed as captive to the very networks that should be supporting him.
This is where Connie’s warning takes on new life. Whether or not her assassination language was ever realistic, the essence of her message — that Gibran’s ambition could one day eclipse Prabowo — now feels less like a provocation and more like a live question. In the turmoil of today, Indonesians are asking: is Prabowo leading, or being positioned to fall?
The danger is that this perception itself becomes destabilizing. In a nation already rattled by economic uncertainty and political tension, rumors of betrayal at the top — however exaggerated — risk deepening public mistrust. And mistrust, once unleashed, is harder to control than even the largest protest.
